IMF Raises UAE 2025 Growth Outlook to 4.8%, Keeps 2026 at 5%

October 16, 2025 189

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for the UAE’s real GDP growth to 4.8% for 2025, up from its previous projection released in April. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Fund also projects the UAE economy will expand by 5% in 2026, unchanged from April’s view. The upgrade underscores the UAE’s resilient macroeconomic fundamentals and the continued momentum of its diversified, innovation-led economy.

Key takeaways

  • 2025 upgrade: Real GDP growth now seen at 4.8% (previously lower in April).
  • 2026 steady at 5%: The Fund maintained its 5% projection for next year.
  • Macro signal: The revision highlights confidence in the UAE’s policy framework, competitiveness, and ongoing transformation.

Why the update matters

Forecast upgrades from the IMF carry weight with global investors, lenders, and rating agencies. A stronger near-term outlook can support capital inflows, lower risk premia, and continued investment into sectors such as advanced manufacturing, logistics, tourism, technology, and financial services. For businesses, a firmer growth track suggests more robust demand, while households may benefit from a healthier labor market and enhanced consumer confidence.

Unified financial diplomacy in Washington

Against this backdrop, the Ministry of Finance (MoF)—in cooperation with the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) and the UAE Embassy in Washington—is hosting the UAE Banks Reception on 16 October during the 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF in Washington, D.C. (running through 18 October).

The reception aims to:

  • Deepen strategic ties between national banks and regional/international counterparts.
  • Build investor networks, opening new channels for institutional capital.
  • Enable direct dialogue among banks, investment firms, regulators, and ecosystem partners.
  • Showcase the UAE’s financial sector and regulatory evolution to a global audience.

By convening decision-makers during the world’s largest financial gathering, the UAE seeks to broaden cooperation, accelerate knowledge exchange, and unlock sustainable growth opportunities for its banking system.

Policy voice

Younis Haji AlKhoori, Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, emphasized the UAE’s commitment to enabling national banks to forge strategic partnerships and expand cooperation with leading international institutions. He noted that the UAE Banks Reception strengthens the country’s standing as a regional and global financial hub, highlighting the maturation of its regulatory environment and the distinctive investment and banking opportunities available in the market.

What this means for stakeholders

  • Investors: An upgraded growth outlook plus proactive financial diplomacy may translate into deal flow, depth in local capital markets, and clearer policy signals.
  • Banks: Closer cross-border relationships can enhance liquidity access, spur syndicated financing, and support innovative products aligned with sustainability and digital transformation.
  • Businesses: Stronger macro prospects and richer banking linkages can lower friction for trade finance, project funding, and expansion plans.
  • Households: A resilient backdrop supports employment, entrepreneurship, and continued investment in housing, education, and services.

Looking ahead

With the IMF projecting 4.8% growth in 2025 and 5% in 2026, the UAE enters the medium term from a position of strength. Continued focus on financial sector connectivity, regulatory excellence, and global partnerships—showcased by the UAE Banks Reception—will be key to sustaining momentum, crowding in private investment, and reinforcing the country’s role as a gateway market for the wider region.